← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 65% | 59% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.95 | value: +24% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 15% | 16% | 6.47 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 66' | ⚽ | Ismail Azzaoui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Erik Bakker · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 332.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1498.87 | 1486.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.49 | 6.45 |
| eye test v1 | 1.36 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| league points | 44.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.52 | 25.12 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |