← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 58% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.49 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 20% | 28% | 4.76 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Vitesse |
| 40' | ⚽ | Thulani Serero · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mason Mount · Vitesse |
| 53' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 68' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 71' | 🟨 | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 71' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 88' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 28.00 | 210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1567.58 | 1443.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.54 | 4.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| league points | 45.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 24.78 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |