← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 37% | 31% | 2.60 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 35% | 41% | 2.76 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Paolo Fernandes · NAC Breda |
| 12' | 🟨 | Kik Pierie · SC Heerenveen |
| 12' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 47' | ⚽ | Pablo Marí · NAC Breda |
| 69' | 🟨 | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days |
| 941.00 |
| 697.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1429.76 | 1538.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.96 | 37.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |