← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 48% | 57% | 2.02 | value: +16% |
| Heracles win | 28% | 22% | 3.46 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 5' | ⚽ | Jaroslav Navratil · Heracles |
| 68' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 25 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 13 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1367.00 |
| 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1480.44 | 1610.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.21 | -34.67 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.61 |
| league points | 38.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |