← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 77% | 80% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.25 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 10% | 6% | 10.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Fred Friday · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Frederik Holst · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 83' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.34 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1094.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1738.67 | 1400.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.24 | -0.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 60.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.34 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.27 | 24.48 |
| state index | 1.49 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |