← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 68% | 62% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.36 | value: +11% |
| AZ win | 13% | 17% | 7.27 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Guus Til · AZ |
| 38' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 49' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 87' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 118.00 | 1336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1805.76 | 1678.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.29 | 28.50 |
| eye test v1 | 2.20 | 1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 73.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.98 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.10 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 21.17 | — |
| state index | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |