← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Thu, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 67% | 55% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 28% | 5.05 | value: +44% |
| FC Groningen win | 14% | 16% | 7.15 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 23' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Utrecht |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 72' | 🟨 | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days |
| 107.00 |
| 626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1614.56 | 1517.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.52 | 11.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.78 |
| league points | 49.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |