← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 45% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 29% | 25% | 3.38 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 59' | 🟨 | Paco Van Moorsel · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 61' | ⚽ | Deroy Duarte · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 73' | ⚽ | Umar Sadiq · NAC Breda |
| 85' | ⚽ | Stijn Spierings · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sander Fischer · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 107.00 | 930.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1371.31 | 1440.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.27 | 3.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 24.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.44 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |