← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 44% | 48% | 2.21 | value: +5% |
| Heracles win | 30% | 27% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Wout Droste · Heracles |
| 7' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 49' | 🟥 | Peter van Ooijen · Heracles |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jamiro Monteiro · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamiro Monteiro · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days |
| 625.00 |
| 1356.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1478.49 | 1478.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.31 | -15.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| league points | 39.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |