← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 56% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.38 | value: +10% |
| Vitesse win | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 12' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 22' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 40' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 53' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 11 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 1325.00 |
| 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1673.62 | 1550.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.28 | -48.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.25 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 2.21 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| league points | 65.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |