← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Tue, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 44% | 43% | 2.21 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 31% | 36% | 3.11 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Jeroen van der Lely · FC Twente '65 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Sepp van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 35' | ⚽ | Michaël Maria · FC Twente '65 |
| 39' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 63' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ryan Thomas · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days | 198.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1409.98 | 1497.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.11 | -26.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| league points | 20.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| state index | -1.22 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |