← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Tue, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 54% | 48% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 3.97 | value: +6% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 21% | 25% | 4.52 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Marco Rojas · SC Heerenveen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Marco Rojas · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 685.00 | 1536.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 0.20 |
| 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1527.11 | 1500.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.15 | -10.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |