← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 48% | 41% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.52 | value: +15% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 25% | 26% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · Willem II Tilburg |
| 18' | 🟨 | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 19' | 🟨 | Karol Mets · NAC Breda |
| 29' | ⚽ | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · Willem II Tilburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Elmo Lieftink · Willem II Tilburg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Umar Sadiq · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days |
| 927.00 |
| 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1451.26 | 1467.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.30 | 31.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |