← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 55% | 58% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.10 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 22% | 21% | 4.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ognjen Gnjatic · Roda JC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Django Warmerdam · FC Groningen |
| 46' | 🟨 | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jesper Drost · FC Groningen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Donis Avdijaj · Roda JC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Patrick Banggaard · Roda JC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fred Ngombo · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 622.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1512.25 | 1402.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.37 | 22.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 30.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |