← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 60% | 64% | 1.63 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.35 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 18% | 13% | 5.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 3 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.63 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| coach days |
| 1080.00 |
| 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1696.35 | 1624.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.98 | -12.32 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 54.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | 1.07 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |