← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 54% | 61% | 1.81 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.03 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 22% | 16% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 38' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · PEC Zwolle |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 317.00 | 621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1499.86 | 1476.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.14 | -6.01 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 43.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |