← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 63% | 57% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.51 | value: +16% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 15% | 18% | 6.29 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Thulani Serero · Vitesse |
| 18' | ⚽ | Roy Beerens · Vitesse |
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Sander Fischer · Vitesse |
| 33' | 🟨 | Loris Brogno · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟥 | Michiel Kramer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 59' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 72' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 77' | ⚽ | Thomas Bruns · Vitesse |
| 82' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 6 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days |
| 13.00 |
| 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1540.94 | 1381.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.98 | 29.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| league points | 42.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |