← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 33% | 38% | 2.91 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Fredrik Jensen · FC Twente '65 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1533.00 | 195.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1494.20 | 1416.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.76 | -11.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 40.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.50 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |