← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 65% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.12 | value: +15% |
| Heracles win | 16% | 19% | 6.01 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 25' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 30' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · AZ |
| 32' | 🟨 | Paul Gladon · Heracles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamiro Monteiro · Heracles |
| 59' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 1351.00 |
| 1320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1490.84 | 1661.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.28 | 10.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 1.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.40 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |