← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 62% | 66% | 1.56 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.27 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 15% | 14% | 6.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 43' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 54' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 69' | ⚽ | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 73' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elson Hooi · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elson Hooi · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days |
| 96.00 |
| 1527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1629.32 | 1489.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.57 | -27.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 48.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |