← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 59% | 55% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.23 | value: +16% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 18% | 18% | 5.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 189.00 | 1073.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1440.78 | 1712.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.78 | -4.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 24.30 | 26.36 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |