← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 52% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.80 | value: +13% |
| FC Groningen win | 23% | 19% | 4.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · SC Heerenveen |
| 55' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days |
| 676.00 |
| 615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1515.10 | 1510.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.46 | -0.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 39.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |