← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 89% | 82% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 13% | 14.08 | value: +81% |
| Heracles win | 5% | 5% | 21.50 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wöber · AFC Ajax |
| 63' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 34 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| coach days | 97.00 | 1346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 1.00 |
| -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1814.00 | 1492.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.52 | 24.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.71 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| league points | 67.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 22.12 | — |
| state index | 1.26 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |