← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 40% | 44% | 2.45 | value: +7% |
| Roda JC win | 34% | 33% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Donis Avdijaj · Roda JC |
| 8' | ⚽ | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ognjen Gnjatic · Roda JC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 47' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 85' | ⚽ | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 86' | 🟨 | Donis Avdijaj · Roda JC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mikhael Rosheuvel · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days |
| 310.00 |
| 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1390.61 | 1511.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.47 | -26.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |