← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 44% | 51% | 2.22 | value: +12% |
| NAC Breda win | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Angeliño · NAC Breda |
| 61' | 🟨 | Guram Kashia · Vitesse |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luc Castaignos · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days |
| 919.00 |
| 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1439.75 | 1552.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.96 | -34.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| league points | 27.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |