← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 41% | 37% | 2.39 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 31% | 27% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jop Van der Linden · Willem II Tilburg |
| 27' | 🟥 | Darryl Lachman · Willem II Tilburg |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 45' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days |
| 613.00 |
| 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1467.59 | 1476.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.79 | 47.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |