← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 41% | 39% | 2.39 | fair |
| Heracles win | 33% | 35% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Arbër Zeneli · SC Heerenveen |
| 43' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kik Pierie · SC Heerenveen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Stijn Schaars · SC Heerenveen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brahim Darri · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1339.00 |
| 669.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1504.59 | 1503.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.96 | 4.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 37.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |