← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 78% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.05 | value: +7% |
| FC Groningen win | 8% | 7% | 12.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 24' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 25' | 🟨 | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 64' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 70' | 🟨 | Django Warmerdam · FC Groningen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 86' | 🟥 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | 🟨 | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 89' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Onana · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 608.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1514.51 | 1809.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.31 | -10.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 2.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 16.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 23.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.40 |
| squad age | — | 21.55 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |