← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 76% | 84% | 1.28 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.22 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 9% | 4% | 11.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| coach days | 1066.00 | 608.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1705.36 | 1492.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.87 | 20.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 48.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 27.54 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |