← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 53% | 52% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.78 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 28' | 🟨 | Kenneth Dougall · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 60' | 🟨 | Robert Mühren · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 61' | 🟨 | Soufyan Ahannach · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 64' | ⚽ | Piotr Parzyszek · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days |
| 303.00 |
| 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1503.92 | 1378.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.83 | 28.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |