← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 48% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.65 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 25% | 24% | 3.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 31' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 39' | ⚽ | Thom Haye · Willem II Tilburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Tsimikas · Willem II Tilburg |
| 50' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 73' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 78' | 🟥 | Freek Heerkens · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timon Wellenreuther · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Urby Emanuelson · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 30.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1480.47 | 1662.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.55 | 21.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 24.45 | 25.94 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |