← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 73% | 79% | 1.34 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.57 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 10% | 7% | 9.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Donis Avdijaj · Roda JC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days |
| 668.00 |
| 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1581.63 | 1361.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.95 | -35.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 42.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |