← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 59% | 53% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.39 | value: +12% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 19% | 21% | 5.25 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 30' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · AZ |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 43' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 84' | 🟨 | Joris van Overeem · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 3 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1519.00 | 1307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 4.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1501.91 | 1655.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.88 | 14.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 2.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 39.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.60 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |