← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 57% | 52% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.02 | value: +10% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 19% | 20% | 5.21 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 15' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 51' | ⚽ | Karim El Ahmadi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 59' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 78' | ⚽ | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Piotr Parzyszek · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | ⚽ | Piotr Parzyszek · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days |
| 290.00 |
| 1052.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 4.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1511.00 | 1675.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.29 | -31.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 40.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |