← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Jansen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 56% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +11% |
| Roda JC win | 20% | 19% | 4.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Donis Avdijaj · Roda JC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Donis Avdijaj · Roda JC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jannes Vansteenkiste · Roda JC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ognjen Gnjatic · Roda JC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabian Sporkslede · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days |
| 899.00 |
| 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1456.73 | 1346.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.84 | -45.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| league points | 27.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.12 | -1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |