← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 79% | 76% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 7.27 | value: +10% |
| FC Groningen win | 8% | 9% | 12.87 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 66' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 70' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1294.00 | 594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.02 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1650.30 | 1519.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.46 | 6.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.95 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| league points | 56.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.00 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |