← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 56% | 50% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.01 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 20% | 26% | 4.84 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Tsimikas · Willem II Tilburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Thom Haye · Willem II Tilburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jos Hooiveld · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 167.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1439.10 | 1479.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.84 | 19.27 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.11 | 26.35 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |