← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 41% | 46% | 2.39 | value: +10% |
| FC Utrecht win | 32% | 26% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 39' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 76' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 88' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukas Görtler · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days |
| 654.00 |
| 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1500.98 | 1645.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.75 | 30.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 35.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |