← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 36' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 41' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 44' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 55' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 60' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 74' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 77' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 68.00 | 648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1650.40 | 1622.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.05 | 3.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 26.42 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |