← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 42% | 38% | 2.33 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 33% | 37% | 2.90 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Thomas · FC Groningen |
| 28' | 🟨 | Erik Bakker · PEC Zwolle |
| 31' | 🟨 | Django Warmerdam · FC Groningen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sepp van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 587.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1506.32 | 1524.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.76 | -17.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |