← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 77% | 84% | 1.26 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 15% | 10% | 6.47 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 8% | 7% | 11.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 33' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · SC Heerenveen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Stijn Schaars · SC Heerenveen |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 85' | 🟨 | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 88' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 31 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days |
| 69.00 |
| 648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1802.08 | 1504.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.15 | -6.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.67 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| league points | 58.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.00 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 22.13 | — |
| state index | 1.08 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |