← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 40% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 34% | 32% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.69 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Sander Fischer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 13' | 🟨 | Ryan Sanusi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 54' | 🟨 | Donis Avdijaj · Roda JC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days |
| 282.00 |
| 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1364.43 | 1365.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.30 | 10.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.78 |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.33 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |