← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 46% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 27% | 34% | 3.55 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 36' | 🟥 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 37' | 🟨 | Robert Zwinkels · ADO Den Haag |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 48' | 🟨 | Donny Gorter · ADO Den Haag |
| 69' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · NAC Breda |
| 83' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1498.00 | 891.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1510.85 | 1436.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.04 | 34.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |