← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 56% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.96 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 22' | 🟨 | Lassana Faye · Vitesse |
| 57' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 59' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mateo Cassierra · AFC Ajax |
| 70' | 🟨 | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 85' | ⚽ | Siem de Jong · AFC Ajax |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luc Castaignos · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 641.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1584.91 | 1816.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.95 | 3.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 1.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| league points | 38.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 2.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 15.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 24.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.05 |
| state index | 0.29 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |