← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 50% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.66 | value: +4% |
| FC Groningen win | 23% | 21% | 4.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · FC Twente '65 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Haris Vučkić · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Tom Boere · FC Twente '65 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adnane Tighadouini · FC Twente '65 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 154.00 | 580.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1427.53 | 1506.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.39 | -23.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.90 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |