← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 42% | 47% | 2.32 | value: +10% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 30% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 62' | ⚽ | Michiel Kramer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 83' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 62.00 | 1492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1351.93 | 1523.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.60 | 28.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| league points | 15.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.57 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |