← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 68% | 66% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.81 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 12% | 14% | 8.07 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Lucas Woudenberg · SC Heerenveen |
| 16' | 🟨 | Eyong Enoh · Willem II Tilburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · SC Heerenveen |
| 47' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 57' | 🟨 | Elmo Lieftink · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 640.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1494.88 | 1436.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.27 | -2.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| league points | 32.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |