← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 66% | 62% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.96 | value: +19% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 15% | 14% | 6.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ (og) | Theo Zwarthoed · AZ |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 44' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 64' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 70' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 579.00 | 1279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 4.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1482.14 | 1651.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.04 | 9.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 2.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 68.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 2.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 9.00 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |