← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 37% | 34% | 2.63 | fair |
| Heracles win | 36% | 36% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.54 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Jannes Vansteenkiste · Roda JC |
| 13' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 39' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 83' | 🟨 | Paul Gladon · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Peter van Ooijen · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 274.00 | 1309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1380.00 | 1478.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.57 | -8.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.00 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.85 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |