← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 59% | 62% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.24 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 18% | 14% | 5.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Haris Vučkić · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 67' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 68' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 71' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
| 77' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 81' | 🟨 | Michaël Maria · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days |
| 54.00 |
| 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1630.89 | 1433.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.31 | -28.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 74.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 41.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.61 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |